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Chongqing Lifan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — Super League 2018

Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
3/31/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Chongqing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chongqing Lifan50%
×Draw24%
Shenzhen Ruby FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Lifan
1.75
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.19

Chongqing Lifan creates 47% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 67 away

creates per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.26
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

allows per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.34
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.25

finishing

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Lifan ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chongqing Lifan or draw
74%
Chongqing Lifan or Shenzhen Ruby FC
76%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
50%

Winning margin

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
27%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
83%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
52%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
25%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
70%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
33%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
66%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Lifan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.26 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chongqing Lifan scores more
50%
level
24%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
26%

Chongqing Lifan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chongqing Lifan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chongqing Lifan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC

Chongqing Lifan beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-0 in Super League on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Chongqing Olympic Sports Center in Chongqing.