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Chongqing Lifan vs Shandong Luneng — Super League 2018

Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
6/14/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Chongqing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chongqing Lifan33%
×Draw25%
Shandong Luneng42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Lifan
1.35
Shandong Luneng
1.56

Shandong Luneng creates 16% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 122 away

creates per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.26
Shandong Luneng
1.77

allows per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.34
Shandong Luneng
1.44

finishing

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par
Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Lifan ↓

Shandong Luneng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chongqing Lifan or draw
58%
Chongqing Lifan or Shandong Luneng
75%
Draw or Shandong Luneng
67%

Winning margin

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
15%
Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
74%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
39%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
15%
Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
79%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
46%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
44%
Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Lifan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.44 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.26 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Shandong Luneng attack 1.77 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chongqing Lifan scores more
33%
level
25%
Shandong Luneng scores more
42%

Shandong Luneng at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chongqing Lifan vs Shandong Luneng

Chongqing Lifan and Shandong Luneng drew 1-1 in Super League on June 14, 2019.

The match was played at Chongqing Olympic Sports Center in Chongqing.