Chongqing Lifan 4–4 Hebei Zhongji: Result & Stats

Chongqing Lifan

FT

4 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Hebei Zhongji

10/20/2018

Super League · Round 26Chongqing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chongqing Lifan53%

×Draw23%

Hebei Zhongji24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chongqing LifanExpected goals in this matchHebei Zhongji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.14

Chongqing Lifan

1.80

Hebei Zhongji

1.14

Chongqing Lifan creates 58% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 67 away

1.26

creates per match

0.94

1.34

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Chongqing Lifan

1.26

Hebei Zhongji

0.94

allows per match

Chongqing Lifan

1.34

Hebei Zhongji

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Lifan ↓

Hebei Zhongji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chongqing Lifan or draw

76%

Chongqing Lifan or Hebei Zhongji

77%

Draw or Hebei Zhongji

47%

Winning margin

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+

29%

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals

83%

Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals

54%

Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals

27%

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals

68%

Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals

32%

Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)

69%

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Lifan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.26 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.80

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chongqing Lifan scores more

53%

level

23%

Hebei Zhongji scores more

24%

Chongqing Lifan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chongqing Lifan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff