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Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou R&F — Super League 2018

Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Guangzhou R&F
Guangzhou R&F
7/27/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Huadu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chongqing Lifan44%
×Draw25%
Guangzhou R&F31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Lifan
1.54
Guangzhou R&F
1.25

Chongqing Lifan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 70 away

creates per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.26
Guangzhou R&F
1.16

allows per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.34
Guangzhou R&F
1.81

finishing

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par
Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Lifan ↓

Guangzhou R&F →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chongqing Lifan or draw
69%
Chongqing Lifan or Guangzhou R&F
75%
Draw or Guangzhou R&F
56%

Winning margin

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
22%
Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
79%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
45%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
20%
Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals
71%
Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals
36%
Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
59%
Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Lifan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Guangzhou R&F away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.81 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.26 + Guangzhou R&F defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.16 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chongqing Lifan scores more
44%
level
25%
Guangzhou R&F scores more
31%

Chongqing Lifan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chongqing Lifan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Chongqing Lifan 4–0 Guangzhou R&F

Chongqing Lifan beat Guangzhou R&F 4-0 in Super League on July 27, 2021.

The match was played at Huadu Stadium in Guongzhou.