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Chongqing Lifan vs Dalian Aerbin — Super League 2018

Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
8/25/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Chongqing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chongqing Lifan45%
×Draw25%
Dalian Aerbin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Lifan
1.56
Dalian Aerbin
1.22

Chongqing Lifan creates 28% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 84 away

creates per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.26
Dalian Aerbin
1.10

allows per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.34
Dalian Aerbin
1.85

finishing

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par
Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Lifan ↓

Dalian Aerbin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chongqing Lifan or draw
70%
Chongqing Lifan or Dalian Aerbin
75%
Draw or Dalian Aerbin
55%

Winning margin

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
23%
Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
79%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
46%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
21%
Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
70%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
34%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
60%
Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Lifan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Dalian Aerbin away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.26 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.10 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chongqing Lifan scores more
45%
level
25%
Dalian Aerbin scores more
30%

Chongqing Lifan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chongqing Lifan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Chongqing Lifan 1–1 Dalian Aerbin

Chongqing Lifan and Dalian Aerbin drew 1-1 in Super League on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Chongqing Olympic Sports Center in Chongqing.