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Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom — FA Cup 2018

Chonburi FC
Chonburi FCadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
2/28/2024FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16Chonburi UTA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Chonburi FC67%
×Draw18%
Nakhon Pathom15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chonburi FC
2.35
Nakhon Pathom
1.01

Chonburi FC creates 133% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Chonburi FC
3.70
Nakhon Pathom
1.43

allows per match

Chonburi FC
0.60
Nakhon Pathom
1.00

finishing

Chonburi FC+0.00on par
Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chonburi FC ↓

Nakhon Pathom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chonburi FC or draw
85%
Chonburi FC or Nakhon Pathom
82%
Draw or Nakhon Pathom
33%

Winning margin

Chonburi FC wins by 2+
44%
Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chonburi FC 1+ goals
90%
Chonburi FC 2+ goals
68%
Chonburi FC 3+ goals
41%
Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
64%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
27%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chonburi FC (draw refunded)
82%
Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chonburi FC at home — creates 3.70, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chonburi FC attack 3.70 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.43 + Chonburi FC defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Chonburi FC scores more
67%
level
18%
Nakhon Pathom scores more
15%

Chonburi FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Chonburi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Chonburi FC 2–1 Nakhon Pathom

Chonburi FC beat Nakhon Pathom 2-1 in FA Cup on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Chonburi UTA Stadium in Chonburi.