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Chomutov vs Vilémov — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Chomutov
Chomutov
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vilémov
Vilémov
9/16/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 7Letní stadion na Zadních Vinohradech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chomutov75%
×Draw15%
Vilémov10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chomutov
2.78
Vilémov
0.95

Chomutov creates 193% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chomutov
2.08
Vilémov
0.87

allows per match

Chomutov
1.02
Vilémov
3.47

finishing

Chomutov+0.00on par
Vilémov+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chomutov ↓

Vilémov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Chomutov or draw
90%
Chomutov or Vilémov
85%
Draw or Vilémov
25%

Winning margin

Chomutov wins by 2+
54%
Vilémov wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chomutov 1+ goals
94%
Chomutov 2+ goals
76%
Chomutov 3+ goals
51%
Vilémov 1+ goals
61%
Vilémov 2+ goals
25%
Vilémov 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chomutov (draw refunded)
88%
Vilémov (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chomutov at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Vilémov away — creates 0.87, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chomutov attack 2.08 + Vilémov defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.78

Vilémov attack 0.87 + Chomutov defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Chomutov scores more
75%
level
15%
Vilémov scores more
10%

Chomutov at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Chomutov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chomutov vs Vilémov

Vilémov beat Chomutov 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on September 16, 2022.

The match was played at Letní stadion na Zadních Vinohradech in Chomutov.