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Chomutov vs Tatran Rakovník — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Chomutov
Chomutov
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
5/20/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 26Letní stadion na Zadních Vinohradech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Chomutov75%
×Draw15%
Tatran Rakovník10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chomutov
2.73
Tatran Rakovník
0.89

Chomutov creates 207% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 24 away

creates per match

Chomutov
2.08
Tatran Rakovník
0.75

allows per match

Chomutov
1.02
Tatran Rakovník
3.38

finishing

Chomutov+0.00on par
Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chomutov ↓

Tatran Rakovník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Chomutov or draw
90%
Chomutov or Tatran Rakovník
85%
Draw or Tatran Rakovník
25%

Winning margin

Chomutov wins by 2+
54%
Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chomutov 1+ goals
93%
Chomutov 2+ goals
75%
Chomutov 3+ goals
50%
Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
59%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
22%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chomutov (draw refunded)
88%
Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chomutov at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Tatran Rakovník away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chomutov attack 2.08 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.73

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.75 + Chomutov defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Chomutov scores more
75%
level
15%
Tatran Rakovník scores more
10%

Chomutov at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Chomutov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chomutov 3 – 0 Tatran Rakovník

Chomutov beat Tatran Rakovník 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on May 20, 2022.

The match was played at Letní stadion na Zadních Vinohradech in Chomutov.