Chomutov 2–1 Sokol Libiš: Result & Stats

Chomutov

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sokol Libiš

11/8/2022

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 14Letní stadion na Zadních Vinohradech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chomutov66%

×Draw18%

Sokol Libiš16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChomutovExpected goals in this matchSokol Libiš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.18

Chomutov

2.54

Sokol Libiš

1.18

Chomutov creates 115% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

2.08

creates per match

1.33

1.02

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Chomutov

2.08

Sokol Libiš

1.33

allows per match

Chomutov

1.02

Sokol Libiš

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chomutov+0.00on par

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chomutov ↓

Sokol Libiš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Chomutov or draw

84%

Chomutov or Sokol Libiš

82%

Draw or Sokol Libiš

34%

Winning margin

Chomutov wins by 2+

45%

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chomutov 1+ goals

92%

Chomutov 2+ goals

72%

Chomutov 3+ goals

46%

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals

69%

Sokol Libiš 2+ goals

33%

Sokol Libiš 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chomutov (draw refunded)

81%

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chomutov at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chomutov attack 2.08 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.54

Sokol Libiš attack 1.33 + Chomutov defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Chomutov scores more

66%

level

18%

Sokol Libiš scores more

16%

Chomutov at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Chomutov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff