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Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Stomil Olsztyn — II Liga - East 2019

Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
3/17/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 24Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice50%
×Draw26%
Stomil Olsztyn24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.52
Stomil Olsztyn
0.96

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 58% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.91
Stomil Olsztyn
0.94

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
0.99
Stomil Olsztyn
1.12

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw
76%
Chojniczanka Chojnice or Stomil Olsztyn
74%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
50%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
26%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
78%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
45%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
20%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
62%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
25%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
68%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.91 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.52

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
50%
level
26%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
24%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Stomil Olsztyn

Chojniczanka Chojnice beat Stomil Olsztyn 1-0 in II Liga - East on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Chojnice in Chojnice.