Chojniczanka Chojnice 2–1 Resovia Rzeszów

Chojniczanka Chojnice

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Resovia Rzeszów

J. Branecki 86'

B. Szczepanek 1'

B. Wasiluk 67' (pen)

11/22/2024

II Liga - East · Round 19Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice49%

×Draw25%

Resovia Rzeszów26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chojniczanka ChojniceExpected goals in this matchResovia Rzeszów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.12

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.63

Resovia Rzeszów

1.12

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 46% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 53 away

1.91

creates per match

1.25

0.99

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.91

Resovia Rzeszów

1.25

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

0.99

Resovia Rzeszów

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Resovia Rzeszów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw

74%

Chojniczanka Chojnice or Resovia Rzeszów

75%

Draw or Resovia Rzeszów

51%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

26%

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

80%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

48%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

22%

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

67%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

31%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

65%

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Resovia Rzeszów away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.91 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.63

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.25 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

49%

level

25%

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

26%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

7'

30'

31'

32'

45+1'

46'

K. Korczyc← J. Romanik

46'

K. Mazek← F. Zawadzki

61'

J. Branecki← M. Biskup

67'

B. WasilukPenalty

72'

K. Mazek

77'

B. Pikul← M. Kozina

82'

R. Bąk← B. Wasiluk

84'

J. Zywicki← P. Olejnik

85'

F. Mikrut← M. Hebel

86'

J. Branecki

90+1'

G. Bukhal

Chojniczanka

Resovia

Tetyk

Bukhal

Szymocha

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Nowak

46'▲K. Korczyc←▼J. Romanik

61'▲J. Branecki←▼M. Biskup

77'▲B. Pikul←▼M. Kozina

84'▲J. Zywicki←▼P. Olejnik

Chojniczanka Chojnice substitutes

KorczycBraneckiPikulZywicki

Manager: J. Żukowskiego

46'▲K. Mazek←▼F. Zawadzki

82'▲R. Bąk←▼B. Wasiluk

85'▲F. Mikrut←▼M. Hebel

Resovia Rzeszów substitutes

MazekBąkMikrut

II Liga - East: Chojniczanka Chojnice 2–1 Resovia Rzeszów

Chojniczanka Chojnice beat Resovia Rzeszów 2-1 in II Liga - East on November 22, 2024.

Goals: B. Szczepanek (1'), B. Wasiluk (67' pen), J. Branecki (86').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Chojnice in Chojnice.

Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Resovia Rzeszów — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Chojniczanka Chojnice 2–1 Resovia Rzeszów