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Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Olimpia Elbląg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
V. Sabala 78'
D. Nowacki 30'
7/7/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice73%
×Draw17%
Olimpia Elbląg10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chojniczanka Chojnice
2.35
Olimpia Elbląg
0.76

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 209% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
2.27
Olimpia Elbląg
0.43

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.09
Olimpia Elbląg
2.43

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par
Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Olimpia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw
90%
Chojniczanka Chojnice or Olimpia Elbląg
83%
Draw or Olimpia Elbląg
27%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
49%
Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
90%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
68%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
41%
Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
53%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
18%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
87%
Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Olimpia Elbląg away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 2.27 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.35

Olimpia Elbląg attack 0.43 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
73%
level
17%
Olimpia Elbląg scores more
10%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
D. Nowacki
78'
V. Sabala
Chojniczanka
Olimpia
Marek Brzozowski
Manager: Marek Brzozowski
K. Szweda
Manager: K. Szweda

Friendlies Clubs: Chojniczanka Chojnice 2–0 Olimpia Elbląg

Chojniczanka Chojnice beat Olimpia Elbląg 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 7, 2026.

Goals: D. Nowacki (30'), V. Sabala (78').