Chojniczanka Chojnice 0–3 Miedz Legnica

Chojniczanka Chojnice

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Miedz Legnica

R. Mišlov 59'

H. Ojamaa 25' (pen)

K. Danielewicz 3'

8/21/2019

I Liga · Round 5Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice35%

×Draw26%

Miedz Legnica38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chojniczanka ChojniceExpected goals in this matchMiedz Legnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.34

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.27

Miedz Legnica

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 103 away

1.36

creates per match

1.22

1.47

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.36

Miedz Legnica

1.22

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.47

Miedz Legnica

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Miedz Legnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw

62%

Chojniczanka Chojnice or Miedz Legnica

74%

Draw or Miedz Legnica

65%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

15%

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

72%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

36%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

14%

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

74%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

39%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

48%

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 47 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.36 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Miedz Legnica attack 1.22 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

35%

level

26%

Miedz Legnica scores more

38%

Miedz Legnica at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

K. Danielewicz

24'

H. Wolakiewicz

25'

H. OjamaaPenalty

32'

R. Mislov

38'

O. Paprzycki← H. Wołąkiewicz

46'

T. Mikołajczak← M. Kuzimski

51'

T. Mikolajczak

59'

R. Mišlov

63'

M. Obrocnik

72'

W. Trochim← J. Surdykowski

72'

M. Sliwa← Marquitos

81'

H. Antkowiak← P. Makuch

85'

G. Bartczak← H. Ojamaa

Chojniczanka

Miedz

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Petrik

38'▲O. Paprzycki←▼H. Wołąkiewicz

46'▲T. Mikołajczak←▼M. Kuzimski

72'▲W. Trochim←▼J. Surdykowski

Chojniczanka Chojnice substitutes

PaprzyckiMikołajczakTrochim

Manager: D. Nowak

72'▲M. Sliwa←▼Marquitos

81'▲H. Antkowiak←▼P. Makuch

85'▲G. Bartczak←▼H. Ojamaa

Miedz Legnica substitutes

SliwaAntkowiakBartczak