Chojniczanka Chojnice 1–1 Górnik Polkowice

Chojniczanka Chojnice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Górnik Polkowice

A. Pląskowski 58'

M. Piątkowski 31' (pen)

6/12/2021

II Liga - East · Round 38Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice47%

×Draw25%

Górnik Polkowice28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chojniczanka ChojniceExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.19

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.60

Górnik Polkowice

1.19

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 34% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 53 away

1.91

creates per match

1.40

0.99

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.91

Górnik Polkowice

1.40

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

0.99

Górnik Polkowice

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw

72%

Chojniczanka Chojnice or Górnik Polkowice

75%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

53%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

24%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

80%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

47%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

22%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

70%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

33%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

62%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.91 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.60

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

47%

level

25%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

28%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

M. PiątkowskiPenalty

46'

A. Pląskowski← Olaf Nowak

58'

A. Pląskowski

64'

A. Golański← R. Ziętarski

68'

E. Sobków← J. Ratajczak

68'

F. Baranowski← E. Terpiłowski

70'

Oskar Nowak← S. Napolov

80'

S. Emche← T. Mikołajczak

80'

P. Czajkowski← A. Rakowski

85'

P. Kucharczyk

89'

A. Borkowski← R. Karmelita

90'

M. Kowalski-Haberek

Chojniczanka

Górnik

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Kafarski

46'▲A. Pląskowski←▼Olaf Nowak

64'▲A. Golański←▼R. Ziętarski

70'▲Oskar Nowak←▼S. Napolov

80'▲S. Emche←▼T. Mikołajczak

80'▲P. Czajkowski←▼A. Rakowski

Chojniczanka Chojnice substitutes

PląskowskiGolańskiNowakEmcheCzajkowski

Manager: J. Niedźwiedź

68'▲E. Sobków←▼J. Ratajczak

68'▲F. Baranowski←▼E. Terpiłowski

89'▲A. Borkowski←▼R. Karmelita

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

SobkówBaranowskiBorkowski

Match Recap: Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Górnik Polkowice

Chojniczanka Chojnice and Górnik Polkowice drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on June 12, 2021.

Goals: M. Piątkowski (31' pen), A. Pląskowski (58').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Chojnice in Chojnice.

Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Górnik Polkowice — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Górnik Polkowice