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Choco vs Juvenil Ponteareas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Choco
Choco
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Juvenil Ponteareas
Juvenil Ponteareas
2/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Campo Municipal de Santa Mariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Choco54%
×Draw25%
Juvenil Ponteareas21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Choco
1.62
Juvenil Ponteareas
0.90

Choco creates 80% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 16 away

creates per match

Choco
1.55
Juvenil Ponteareas
0.63

allows per match

Choco
1.16
Juvenil Ponteareas
1.69

finishing

Choco+0.00on par
Juvenil Ponteareas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Choco ↓

Juvenil Ponteareas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Choco or draw
79%
Choco or Juvenil Ponteareas
75%
Draw or Juvenil Ponteareas
46%

Winning margin

Choco wins by 2+
29%
Juvenil Ponteareas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Choco 1+ goals
80%
Choco 2+ goals
48%
Choco 3+ goals
22%
Juvenil Ponteareas 1+ goals
59%
Juvenil Ponteareas 2+ goals
23%
Juvenil Ponteareas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Choco (draw refunded)
72%
Juvenil Ponteareas (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Choco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Juvenil Ponteareas away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Choco attack 1.55 + Juvenil Ponteareas defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.62

Juvenil Ponteareas attack 0.63 + Choco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Choco scores more
54%
level
25%
Juvenil Ponteareas scores more
21%

Choco at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Choco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Choco vs Juvenil Ponteareas

Choco beat Juvenil Ponteareas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Santa Mariña in Redondela.