Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Choco vs Deportivo La Coruña II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Choco
Choco
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo La Coruña II
Deportivo La Coruña II
8/25/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Campo Municipal de Santa Mariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Choco40%
×Draw27%
Deportivo La Coruña II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Choco
1.30
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.16

Choco creates 12% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

creates per match

Choco
1.55
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.16

allows per match

Choco
1.16
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.05

finishing

Choco+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Choco ↓

Deportivo La Coruña II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Choco or draw
67%
Choco or Deportivo La Coruña II
73%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruña II
60%

Winning margin

Choco wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Choco 1+ goals
73%
Choco 2+ goals
37%
Choco 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Choco (draw refunded)
55%
Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Choco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Deportivo La Coruña II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Choco attack 1.55 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.30

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.16 + Choco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Choco scores more
40%
level
27%
Deportivo La Coruña II scores more
33%

Choco at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Choco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Choco 0 – 0 Deportivo La Coruña II

Choco and Deportivo La Coruña II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Santa Mariña in Redondela.