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Choco vs Celta de Vigo III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Choco
Choco
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Celta de Vigo III
Celta de Vigo III
1/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Campo Municipal de Santa Mariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Choco41%
×Draw28%
Celta de Vigo III31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Choco
1.27
Celta de Vigo III
1.08

Choco creates 18% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 66 away

creates per match

Choco
1.55
Celta de Vigo III
1.00

allows per match

Choco
1.16
Celta de Vigo III
0.98

finishing

Choco+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Choco ↓

Celta de Vigo III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Choco or draw
69%
Choco or Celta de Vigo III
72%
Draw or Celta de Vigo III
59%

Winning margin

Choco wins by 2+
18%
Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Choco 1+ goals
72%
Choco 2+ goals
36%
Choco 3+ goals
14%
Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals
66%
Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals
29%
Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Choco (draw refunded)
56%
Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Choco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Celta de Vigo III away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Choco attack 1.55 + Celta de Vigo III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Celta de Vigo III attack 1.00 + Choco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Choco scores more
41%
level
28%
Celta de Vigo III scores more
31%

Choco at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Choco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Choco 2–3 Celta de Vigo III

Celta de Vigo III beat Choco 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Santa Mariña in Redondela.