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Chlumec nad Cidlinou vs Sokol Zápy — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Chlumec nad Cidlinou
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Sokol Zápy
Sokol Zápy
6/1/20253. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 30Městský fotbalový stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Chlumec nad Cidlinou38%
×Draw25%
Sokol Zápy37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.44
Sokol Zápy
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 79 away

creates per match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.71
Sokol Zápy
1.37

allows per match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.48
Sokol Zápy
1.18

finishing

Chlumec nad Cidlinou+0.00on par
Sokol Zápy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chlumec nad Cidlinou ↓

Sokol Zápy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chlumec nad Cidlinou or draw
63%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou or Sokol Zápy
75%
Draw or Sokol Zápy
62%

Winning margin

Chlumec nad Cidlinou wins by 2+
18%
Sokol Zápy wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1+ goals
76%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2+ goals
42%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3+ goals
18%
Sokol Zápy 1+ goals
76%
Sokol Zápy 2+ goals
42%
Sokol Zápy 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chlumec nad Cidlinou (draw refunded)
50%
Sokol Zápy (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chlumec nad Cidlinou at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.48 · 65 matches

Sokol Zápy away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.18 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou attack 1.71 + Sokol Zápy defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sokol Zápy attack 1.37 + Chlumec nad Cidlinou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chlumec nad Cidlinou scores more
38%
level
25%
Sokol Zápy scores more
37%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chlumec nad Cidlinou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chlumec nad Cidlinou vs Sokol Zápy

Sokol Zápy beat Chlumec nad Cidlinou 5-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion in Chlumec nad Cidlinou.