Chitipa United 1–0 TN Stars: Result & Stats

Chitipa United

FT

1 – 0

TN Stars

9/19/2021

Super League · Round 23Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Chitipa United62%

×Draw23%

TN Stars15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chitipa UnitedExpected goals in this matchTN Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.74

Chitipa United

1.78

TN Stars

0.74

Chitipa United creates 141% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 32 away

1.33

creates per match

0.59

0.90

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Chitipa United

1.33

TN Stars

0.59

allows per match

Chitipa United

0.90

TN Stars

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chitipa United+0.00on par

TN Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chitipa United ↓

TN Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chitipa United or draw

85%

Chitipa United or TN Stars

77%

Draw or TN Stars

38%

Winning margin

Chitipa United wins by 2+

36%

TN Stars wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Chitipa United 1+ goals

83%

Chitipa United 2+ goals

53%

Chitipa United 3+ goals

26%

TN Stars 1+ goals

52%

TN Stars 2+ goals

17%

TN Stars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chitipa United (draw refunded)

80%

TN Stars (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chitipa United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

TN Stars away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chitipa United attack 1.33 + TN Stars defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.78

TN Stars attack 0.59 + Chitipa United defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chitipa United scores more

62%

level

23%

TN Stars scores more

15%

Chitipa United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chitipa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff