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Chitipa United vs Nyasa Big Bullets — Super League 2026

Chitipa United
Chitipa United
Preview
12:30
Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
1/25/2027Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27
Big match
38%
Nyasa Big Bullets
model favours
32%31%38%

Chitipa United score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Chitipa United32%
×Draw31%
Nyasa Big Bullets38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chitipa United
0.95
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.06

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 12% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 79 away

creates per match

Chitipa United
1.33
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.23

allows per match

Chitipa United
0.90
Nyasa Big Bullets
0.57

finishing

Chitipa United+0.00on par
Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chitipa United ↓

Nyasa Big Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chitipa United or draw
62%
Chitipa United or Nyasa Big Bullets
69%
Draw or Nyasa Big Bullets
68%

Winning margin

Chitipa United wins by 2+
11%
Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chitipa United 1+ goals
61%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
25%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
7%
Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
65%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
29%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chitipa United (draw refunded)
46%
Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chitipa United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Nyasa Big Bullets away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.57 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chitipa United attack 1.33 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.95

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 1.23 + Chitipa United defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chitipa United scores more
32%
level
31%
Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
38%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Nyasa Big Bullets have won 7 of the last 8 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 25% of Chitipa United’s matches
  • 69% of Chitipa United’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Chitipa United win just 19% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
United
DWLLL
Bullets
WWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chitipa United host Nyasa Big Bullets

January 25, 2027: Chitipa United take on Nyasa Big Bullets in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.