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Chitipa United vs Masters FC — Super League 2026

Chitipa United
Chitipa United
Preview
12:30
Masters FC
Masters FC
10/24/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18
58%
Chitipa United
model favours
58%26%16%

Chitipa United score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chitipa United58%
×Draw26%
Masters FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chitipa United
1.54
Masters FC
0.68

Chitipa United creates 126% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 4 away

creates per match

Chitipa United
1.33
Masters FC
0.50

allows per match

Chitipa United
0.86
Masters FC
1.75

finishing

Chitipa United+0.00on par
Masters FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chitipa United ↓

Masters FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chitipa United or draw
84%
Chitipa United or Masters FC
74%
Draw or Masters FC
42%

Winning margin

Chitipa United wins by 2+
31%
Masters FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Chitipa United 1+ goals
79%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
45%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
20%
Masters FC 1+ goals
49%
Masters FC 2+ goals
15%
Masters FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chitipa United (draw refunded)
78%
Masters FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chitipa United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 66 matches

Masters FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chitipa United attack 1.33 + Masters FC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Masters FC attack 0.50 + Chitipa United defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chitipa United scores more
58%
level
26%
Masters FC scores more
16%

Chitipa United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chitipa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 25% of Chitipa United’s matches
  • 69% of Chitipa United’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Chitipa United win just 19% against the top half (vs 49% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
United
DWLLL
FC
WLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chitipa United face Masters FC (Super League)

Super League returns with Chitipa United hosting Masters FC. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.