Chitipa United 1–0 Kamuzu Barracks: Result & Stats

Chitipa United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kamuzu Barracks

6/21/2025

Super League · Round 4Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Chitipa United43%

×Draw29%

Kamuzu Barracks28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chitipa UnitedExpected goals in this matchKamuzu Barracks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.93

Chitipa United

1.22

Kamuzu Barracks

0.93

Chitipa United creates 31% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 81 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

0.86

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Chitipa United

1.33

Kamuzu Barracks

1.00

allows per match

Chitipa United

0.86

Kamuzu Barracks

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chitipa United+0.00on par

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chitipa United ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chitipa United or draw

72%

Chitipa United or Kamuzu Barracks

71%

Draw or Kamuzu Barracks

57%

Winning margin

Chitipa United wins by 2+

19%

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chitipa United 1+ goals

70%

Chitipa United 2+ goals

34%

Chitipa United 3+ goals

12%

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals

61%

Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals

24%

Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chitipa United (draw refunded)

60%

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chitipa United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 66 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chitipa United attack 1.33 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + Chitipa United defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chitipa United scores more

43%

level

29%

Kamuzu Barracks scores more

28%

Chitipa United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chitipa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff