Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chitipa United vs Blue Eagles — Super League 2026

Chitipa United
Chitipa United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Blue Eagles
Blue Eagles
5/2/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Chitipa United41%
×Draw30%
Blue Eagles29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chitipa United
1.15
Blue Eagles
0.92

Chitipa United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 67 away

creates per match

Chitipa United
1.33
Blue Eagles
0.97

allows per match

Chitipa United
0.86
Blue Eagles
0.96

finishing

Chitipa United+0.00on par
Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chitipa United ↓

Blue Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chitipa United or draw
71%
Chitipa United or Blue Eagles
70%
Draw or Blue Eagles
59%

Winning margin

Chitipa United wins by 2+
17%
Blue Eagles wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chitipa United 1+ goals
68%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
32%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
11%
Blue Eagles 1+ goals
60%
Blue Eagles 2+ goals
23%
Blue Eagles 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chitipa United (draw refunded)
58%
Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chitipa United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 66 matches

Blue Eagles away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chitipa United attack 1.33 + Blue Eagles defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Blue Eagles attack 0.97 + Chitipa United defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chitipa United scores more
41%
level
30%
Blue Eagles scores more
29%

Chitipa United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chitipa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Chitipa United 1–0 Blue Eagles

Chitipa United beat Blue Eagles 1-0 in Super League on May 2, 2026.