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Chita vs Zvezda St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chita
Chita
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Zvezda St. Petersburg
Zvezda St. Petersburg
10/25/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chita42%
×Draw26%
Zvezda St. Petersburg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chita
1.46
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.27

Chita creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 89 away

creates per match

Chita
1.23
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.22

allows per match

Chita
1.31
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.69

finishing

Chita+0.00on par
Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chita ↓

Zvezda St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chita or draw
67%
Chita or Zvezda St. Petersburg
74%
Draw or Zvezda St. Petersburg
58%

Winning margin

Chita wins by 2+
20%
Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chita 1+ goals
77%
Chita 2+ goals
43%
Chita 3+ goals
18%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals
72%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals
36%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chita (draw refunded)
56%
Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chita at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chita attack 1.23 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.22 + Chita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chita scores more
42%
level
26%
Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more
33%

Chita at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Chita 1–2 Zvezda St. Petersburg

Zvezda St. Petersburg beat Chita 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on October 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Chita.