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Chita vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chita
Chita
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
8/23/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chita42%
×Draw26%
Znamya Truda32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chita
1.41
Znamya Truda
1.19

Chita creates 18% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 68 away

creates per match

Chita
1.23
Znamya Truda
1.07

allows per match

Chita
1.31
Znamya Truda
1.59

finishing

Chita+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chita ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chita or draw
68%
Chita or Znamya Truda
74%
Draw or Znamya Truda
58%

Winning margin

Chita wins by 2+
20%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chita 1+ goals
76%
Chita 2+ goals
41%
Chita 3+ goals
17%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
70%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
33%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chita (draw refunded)
57%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chita at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chita attack 1.23 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Chita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chita scores more
42%
level
26%
Znamya Truda scores more
32%

Chita at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chita vs Znamya Truda

Znamya Truda beat Chita 3-1 in Second League - Group 2 on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Chita.