Chita 2–1 Rodina Moskva: Result & Stats

Chita

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rodina Moskva

6/1/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Chita36%

×Draw25%

Rodina Moskva39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChitaExpected goals in this matchRodina Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.51

Chita

1.44

Rodina Moskva

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 14 away

1.23

creates per match

1.71

1.31

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Chita

1.23

Rodina Moskva

1.71

allows per match

Chita

1.31

Rodina Moskva

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chita+0.00on par

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chita ↓

Rodina Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chita or draw

61%

Chita or Rodina Moskva

75%

Draw or Rodina Moskva

64%

Winning margin

Chita wins by 2+

17%

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Chita 1+ goals

76%

Chita 2+ goals

42%

Chita 3+ goals

18%

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals

78%

Rodina Moskva 2+ goals

44%

Rodina Moskva 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Chita (draw refunded)

48%

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chita at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chita attack 1.23 + Rodina Moskva defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Rodina Moskva attack 1.71 + Chita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chita scores more

36%

level

25%

Rodina Moskva scores more

39%

Rodina Moskva at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff