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Chita vs Olimp-Dolgoprudny II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chita
Chita
FT
3 – 0
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
4/23/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Chita37%
×Draw26%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chita
1.29
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 14 away

creates per match

Chita
1.23
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.29

allows per match

Chita
1.31
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.36

finishing

Chita+0.00on par
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chita ↓

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chita or draw
63%
Chita or Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
74%
Draw or Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
63%

Winning margin

Chita wins by 2+
16%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chita 1+ goals
72%
Chita 2+ goals
37%
Chita 3+ goals
14%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 1+ goals
73%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 2+ goals
37%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chita (draw refunded)
50%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chita at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chita attack 1.23 + Olimp-Dolgoprudny II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II attack 1.29 + Chita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chita scores more
37%
level
26%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II scores more
37%

Chita at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chita vs Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

Chita beat Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 3-0 in Second League - Group 2 on April 23, 2022.