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Chita vs Krasava Odintsovo — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chita
Chita
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Krasava Odintsovo
Krasava Odintsovo
9/18/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Chita36%
×Draw25%
Krasava Odintsovo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chita
1.36
Krasava Odintsovo
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 16 away

creates per match

Chita
1.23
Krasava Odintsovo
1.50

allows per match

Chita
1.31
Krasava Odintsovo
1.50

finishing

Chita+0.00on par
Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chita ↓

Krasava Odintsovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chita or draw
62%
Chita or Krasava Odintsovo
75%
Draw or Krasava Odintsovo
64%

Winning margin

Chita wins by 2+
16%
Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Chita 1+ goals
74%
Chita 2+ goals
39%
Chita 3+ goals
16%
Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals
76%
Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals
41%
Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chita (draw refunded)
48%
Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chita at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Krasava Odintsovo away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chita attack 1.23 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.50 + Chita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chita scores more
36%
level
25%
Krasava Odintsovo scores more
38%

Krasava Odintsovo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krasava Odintsovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Chita 1–2 Krasava Odintsovo

Krasava Odintsovo beat Chita 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Chita.