Chita 0–0 Dinamo St. Petersburg: Result & Stats

Chita

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo St. Petersburg

9/10/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chita36%

×Draw26%

Dinamo St. Petersburg39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChitaExpected goals in this matchDinamo St. Petersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.40

Chita

1.33

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 61 away

1.23

creates per match

1.49

1.31

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Chita

1.23

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.49

allows per match

Chita

1.31

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chita+0.00on par

Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chita ↓

Dinamo St. Petersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chita or draw

61%

Chita or Dinamo St. Petersburg

74%

Draw or Dinamo St. Petersburg

64%

Winning margin

Chita wins by 2+

16%

Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Chita 1+ goals

74%

Chita 2+ goals

38%

Chita 3+ goals

15%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals

75%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals

41%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Chita (draw refunded)

48%

Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chita at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chita attack 1.23 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.49 + Chita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chita scores more

36%

level

26%

Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more

39%

Dinamo St. Petersburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff