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Chita vs Dinamo Moskva II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chita
Chita
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
9/24/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Stadion Junost'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chita32%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Moskva II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chita
1.20
Dinamo Moskva II
1.39

Dinamo Moskva II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 70 away

creates per match

Chita
1.23
Dinamo Moskva II
1.46

allows per match

Chita
1.31
Dinamo Moskva II
1.17

finishing

Chita+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chita ↓

Dinamo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chita or draw
59%
Chita or Dinamo Moskva II
74%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva II
68%

Winning margin

Chita wins by 2+
13%
Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Chita 1+ goals
70%
Chita 2+ goals
34%
Chita 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
75%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
40%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chita (draw refunded)
44%
Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chita at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Dinamo Moskva II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chita attack 1.23 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.46 + Chita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chita scores more
32%
level
26%
Dinamo Moskva II scores more
41%

Dinamo Moskva II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Chita 2–3 Dinamo Moskva II

Dinamo Moskva II beat Chita 3-2 in Second League - Group 2 on September 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Junost' in Chita.