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Chita vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chita
Chita
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
8/15/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chita38%
×Draw26%
Baltika BFU36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chita
1.32
Baltika BFU
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 53 away

creates per match

Chita
1.23
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Chita
1.31
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Chita+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chita ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chita or draw
64%
Chita or Baltika BFU
74%
Draw or Baltika BFU
62%

Winning margin

Chita wins by 2+
17%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chita 1+ goals
73%
Chita 2+ goals
38%
Chita 3+ goals
15%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
72%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
37%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chita (draw refunded)
51%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chita at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chita attack 1.23 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Chita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chita scores more
38%
level
26%
Baltika BFU scores more
36%

Chita at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Chita 1–1 Baltika BFU

Chita and Baltika BFU drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Chita.