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Chippa United vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018

Chippa United
Chippa United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
8/9/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 1Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Chippa United21%
×Draw29%
Mamelodi Sundowns50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chippa United
0.72
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.27

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 76% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 119 away

creates per match

Chippa United
0.81
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.54

allows per match

Chippa United
0.99
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.62

finishing

Chippa United+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chippa United ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chippa United or draw
50%
Chippa United or Mamelodi Sundowns
71%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
79%

Winning margin

Chippa United wins by 2+
6%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Chippa United 1+ goals
51%
Chippa United 2+ goals
16%
Chippa United 3+ goals
4%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
72%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
36%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chippa United (draw refunded)
30%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chippa United at home — creates 0.81, concedes 0.99 · 120 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chippa United attack 0.81 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.72

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.54 + Chippa United defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chippa United scores more
21%
level
29%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
50%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Chippa United 1–1 Mamelodi Sundowns

Chippa United and Mamelodi Sundowns drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in Port Elizabeth.