Chippa United vs Golden Arrows — Premier Soccer League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 120+ matches
Chippa United38%
Golden Arrows32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Chippa United creates 12% more chances
Season form · 120 home / 120 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Chippa United ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Chippa United at home — creates 0.81, concedes 0.99 · 120 matches
Golden Arrows away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.39 · 120 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Chippa United attack 0.81 + Golden Arrows defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.10
Golden Arrows attack 0.98 + Chippa United defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.98
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Chippa United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Chippa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Mamelodi Sundowns
Orlando Pirates
Bidvest Wits
Cape Town City
Polokwane City
Supersport United
Highlands Park FC
Bloem Celtic
Kaizer ChiefsGolden Arrows
AmazuluChippa United
Black Leopards
Baroka FC
Maritzburg Utd
Free State StarsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Chippa United host Golden Arrows on Saturday, 26 October 2024 at 18:00. The match is part of the Premier Soccer League 2018/2019 season.
Premier Soccer League: Chippa United 2–0 Golden Arrows
Chippa United beat Golden Arrows 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on October 26, 2024.
The match was played at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in Port Elizabeth.