Chippa United 0–0 Bloem Celtic: Result & Stats

Chippa United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bloem Celtic

9/21/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 5Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chippa United39%

×Draw30%

Bloem Celtic32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chippa UnitedExpected goals in this matchBloem Celtic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.00

Chippa United

1.14

Bloem Celtic

1.00

Chippa United creates 14% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 45 away

0.81

creates per match

1.02

0.99

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Chippa United

0.81

Bloem Celtic

1.02

allows per match

Chippa United

0.99

Bloem Celtic

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chippa United+0.00on par

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chippa United ↓

Bloem Celtic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chippa United or draw

68%

Chippa United or Bloem Celtic

70%

Draw or Bloem Celtic

61%

Winning margin

Chippa United wins by 2+

16%

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chippa United 1+ goals

68%

Chippa United 2+ goals

32%

Chippa United 3+ goals

11%

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals

63%

Bloem Celtic 2+ goals

26%

Bloem Celtic 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chippa United (draw refunded)

55%

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chippa United at home — creates 0.81, concedes 0.99 · 120 matches

Bloem Celtic away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chippa United attack 0.81 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.14

Bloem Celtic attack 1.02 + Chippa United defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chippa United scores more

39%

level

30%

Bloem Celtic scores more

32%

Chippa United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chippa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff