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Chions vs Union Feltre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Chions
Chions
FT
2 – 3
Union Feltre
Union Feltre
9/21/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 5Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin (Chions)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Chions30%
×Draw25%
Union Feltre45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chions
1.25
Union Feltre
1.58

Union Feltre creates 26% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 13 away

creates per match

Chions
1.18
Union Feltre
2.00

allows per match

Chions
1.16
Union Feltre
1.31

finishing

Chions+0.00on par
Union Feltre+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chions ↓

Union Feltre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chions or draw
55%
Chions or Union Feltre
75%
Draw or Union Feltre
70%

Winning margin

Chions wins by 2+
13%
Union Feltre wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Chions 1+ goals
71%
Chions 2+ goals
36%
Chions 3+ goals
13%
Union Feltre 1+ goals
79%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
47%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Chions (draw refunded)
40%
Union Feltre (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chions at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Union Feltre away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chions attack 1.18 + Union Feltre defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Union Feltre attack 2.00 + Chions defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chions scores more
30%
level
25%
Union Feltre scores more
45%

Union Feltre at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Chions 2–3 Union Feltre

Union Feltre beat Chions 3-2 in Serie D - Girone C on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin (Chions).