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Chions vs Treviso — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Chions
Chions
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Treviso
Treviso
E. Valenta 56'
Y. G. Gnago 82'
F. Posocco 58'
A. Arcopinto 29'
12/10/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 15Stadio Ottavio Bottecchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chions30%
×Draw27%
Treviso43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chions
1.09
Treviso
1.35

Treviso creates 24% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 53 away

creates per match

Chions
1.18
Treviso
1.55

allows per match

Chions
1.16
Treviso
1.00

finishing

Chions+0.00on par
Treviso+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chions ↓

Treviso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chions or draw
57%
Chions or Treviso
73%
Draw or Treviso
70%

Winning margin

Chions wins by 2+
12%
Treviso wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Chions 1+ goals
66%
Chions 2+ goals
30%
Chions 3+ goals
10%
Treviso 1+ goals
74%
Treviso 2+ goals
39%
Treviso 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chions (draw refunded)
41%
Treviso (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chions at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Treviso away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chions attack 1.18 + Treviso defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Treviso attack 1.55 + Chions defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chions scores more
30%
level
27%
Treviso scores more
43%

Treviso at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Treviso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
A. Arcopinto
56'
E. Valenta
58'
F. Posocco
82'
Y. G. Gnago

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Chions 1–3 Treviso

Treviso beat Chions 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on December 10, 2023.

Goals: A. Arcopinto (29'), E. Valenta (56'), F. Posocco (58'), Y. G. Gnago (82').

The match was played at Stadio Ottavio Bottecchia in Pordenone.