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Chions vs Real Calepina — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Chions
Chions
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Real Calepina
Real Calepina
9/8/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 1Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chions39%
×Draw28%
Real Calepina33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chions
1.25
Real Calepina
1.14

Chions creates 10% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 19 away

creates per match

Chions
1.18
Real Calepina
1.11

allows per match

Chions
1.16
Real Calepina
1.32

finishing

Chions+0.00on par
Real Calepina+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chions ↓

Real Calepina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chions or draw
67%
Chions or Real Calepina
72%
Draw or Real Calepina
61%

Winning margin

Chions wins by 2+
17%
Real Calepina wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chions 1+ goals
71%
Chions 2+ goals
36%
Chions 3+ goals
13%
Real Calepina 1+ goals
68%
Real Calepina 2+ goals
32%
Real Calepina 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chions (draw refunded)
54%
Real Calepina (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chions at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Real Calepina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chions attack 1.18 + Real Calepina defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Real Calepina attack 1.11 + Chions defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chions scores more
39%
level
28%
Real Calepina scores more
33%

Chions at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Chions 1–2 Real Calepina

Real Calepina beat Chions 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin in Chions.