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Chions vs Portogruaro — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Chions
Chions
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Portogruaro
Portogruaro
E. Valenta 44'
1/20/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 20Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chions46%
×Draw26%
Portogruaro28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chions
1.44
Portogruaro
1.06

Chions creates 36% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 70 away

creates per match

Chions
1.18
Portogruaro
0.96

allows per match

Chions
1.16
Portogruaro
1.71

finishing

Chions+0.00on par
Portogruaro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chions ↓

Portogruaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chions or draw
72%
Chions or Portogruaro
74%
Draw or Portogruaro
54%

Winning margin

Chions wins by 2+
22%
Portogruaro wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chions 1+ goals
76%
Chions 2+ goals
42%
Chions 3+ goals
18%
Portogruaro 1+ goals
65%
Portogruaro 2+ goals
29%
Portogruaro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chions (draw refunded)
62%
Portogruaro (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chions at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Portogruaro away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chions attack 1.18 + Portogruaro defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Portogruaro attack 0.96 + Chions defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chions scores more
46%
level
26%
Portogruaro scores more
28%

Chions at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
E. Valenta
61'
I. Ba
61'
I. Ba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Chions 1–0 Portogruaro

Chions beat Portogruaro 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 20, 2024.

Goals: E. Valenta (44').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin in Chions.