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Chions vs Legnago Salus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Chions
Chions
PST
13:00
Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus
4/26/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 37Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin (Chions)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Chions30%
×Draw26%
Legnago Salus44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chions
1.17
Legnago Salus
1.48

Legnago Salus creates 26% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 48 away

creates per match

Chions
1.18
Legnago Salus
1.79

allows per match

Chions
1.16
Legnago Salus
1.17

finishing

Chions+0.00on par
Legnago Salus+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chions ↓

Legnago Salus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chions or draw
56%
Chions or Legnago Salus
74%
Draw or Legnago Salus
70%

Winning margin

Chions wins by 2+
12%
Legnago Salus wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Chions 1+ goals
69%
Chions 2+ goals
33%
Chions 3+ goals
11%
Legnago Salus 1+ goals
77%
Legnago Salus 2+ goals
43%
Legnago Salus 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Chions (draw refunded)
40%
Legnago Salus (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chions at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Legnago Salus away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chions attack 1.18 + Legnago Salus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Legnago Salus attack 1.79 + Chions defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chions scores more
30%
level
26%
Legnago Salus scores more
44%

Legnago Salus at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chions host Legnago Salus

April 26, 2020: Chions take on Legnago Salus in Serie D - Girone C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chions host Legnago Salus at Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin (Chions).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.