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Chions vs Este — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Chions
Chions
FT
1 – 1
Este
Este
D. Basso 67'
F. Segalina 43'
2/16/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 27Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin (Chions)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chions38%
×Draw28%
Este34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chions
1.21
Este
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 102 away

creates per match

Chions
1.18
Este
1.09

allows per match

Chions
1.16
Este
1.24

finishing

Chions+0.00on par
Este+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chions ↓

Este →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chions or draw
66%
Chions or Este
72%
Draw or Este
62%

Winning margin

Chions wins by 2+
16%
Este wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chions 1+ goals
70%
Chions 2+ goals
34%
Chions 3+ goals
12%
Este 1+ goals
68%
Este 2+ goals
31%
Este 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chions (draw refunded)
53%
Este (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chions at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Este away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chions attack 1.18 + Este defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Este attack 1.09 + Chions defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chions scores more
38%
level
28%
Este scores more
34%

Chions at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
F. Segalina
67'
D. Basso

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chions vs Este

Chions and Este drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on February 16, 2020.

Goals: F. Segalina (43'), D. Basso (67').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin (Chions).