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Chions vs Cartigliano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Chions
Chions
FT
2 – 1
Cartigliano
Cartigliano
12/22/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 19Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin (Chions)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Chions36%
×Draw27%
Cartigliano37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chions
1.27
Cartigliano
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 49 away

creates per match

Chions
1.18
Cartigliano
1.43

allows per match

Chions
1.16
Cartigliano
1.37

finishing

Chions+0.00on par
Cartigliano+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chions ↓

Cartigliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chions or draw
63%
Chions or Cartigliano
73%
Draw or Cartigliano
64%

Winning margin

Chions wins by 2+
16%
Cartigliano wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chions 1+ goals
72%
Chions 2+ goals
36%
Chions 3+ goals
14%
Cartigliano 1+ goals
72%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
37%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chions (draw refunded)
49%
Cartigliano (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chions at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Cartigliano away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chions attack 1.18 + Cartigliano defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Chions defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chions scores more
36%
level
27%
Cartigliano scores more
37%

Cartigliano at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cartigliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chions vs Cartigliano

Chions beat Cartigliano 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin (Chions).