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Chions vs Calvi Noale — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Chions
Chions
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Calvi Noale
Calvi Noale
E. Valenta 81'
D. Danti 26'
S. Coin 16' (pen)
5/4/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 38Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Chions39%
×Draw28%
Calvi Noale33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chions
1.20
Calvi Noale
1.09

Chions creates 10% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 36 away

creates per match

Chions
1.18
Calvi Noale
1.03

allows per match

Chions
1.16
Calvi Noale
1.22

finishing

Chions+0.00on par
Calvi Noale+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chions ↓

Calvi Noale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chions or draw
67%
Chions or Calvi Noale
72%
Draw or Calvi Noale
61%

Winning margin

Chions wins by 2+
16%
Calvi Noale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chions 1+ goals
70%
Chions 2+ goals
34%
Chions 3+ goals
12%
Calvi Noale 1+ goals
66%
Calvi Noale 2+ goals
30%
Calvi Noale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chions (draw refunded)
54%
Calvi Noale (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chions at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Calvi Noale away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chions attack 1.18 + Calvi Noale defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Calvi Noale attack 1.03 + Chions defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chions scores more
39%
level
28%
Calvi Noale scores more
33%

Chions at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
S. CoinPenalty
26'
D. Danti
81'
E. Valenta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Chions 2–1 Calvi Noale

Chions beat Calvi Noale 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on May 4, 2025.

Goals: S. Coin (16' pen), D. Danti (26'), E. Valenta (81').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin in Chions.