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Chions vs Bassano Virtus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Chions
Chions
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bassano Virtus
Bassano Virtus
9/18/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 3Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chions35%
×Draw30%
Bassano Virtus35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chions
1.05
Bassano Virtus
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 53 away

creates per match

Chions
1.18
Bassano Virtus
0.92

allows per match

Chions
1.16
Bassano Virtus
0.92

finishing

Chions+0.00on par
Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chions ↓

Bassano Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chions or draw
65%
Chions or Bassano Virtus
70%
Draw or Bassano Virtus
65%

Winning margin

Chions wins by 2+
14%
Bassano Virtus wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chions 1+ goals
65%
Chions 2+ goals
28%
Chions 3+ goals
9%
Bassano Virtus 1+ goals
65%
Bassano Virtus 2+ goals
28%
Bassano Virtus 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chions (draw refunded)
50%
Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chions at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Bassano Virtus away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chions attack 1.18 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Bassano Virtus attack 0.92 + Chions defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Chions scores more
35%
level
30%
Bassano Virtus scores more
35%

Chions at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Chions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Chions 0–0 Bassano Virtus

Chions and Bassano Virtus drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin in Chions.