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Chinese Taipei W vs Papua New Guinea W — Friendlies Women 2026

Chinese Taipei W
Chinese Taipei W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Papua New Guinea W
Papua New Guinea W
Unknown 76', 65', 38', 35', 30'
2/23/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2North Harbour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chinese Taipei W81%
×Draw11%
Papua New Guinea W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chinese Taipei W
3.50
Papua New Guinea W
1.08

Chinese Taipei W creates 224% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chinese Taipei W
3.00
Papua New Guinea W
1.83

allows per match

Chinese Taipei W
0.33
Papua New Guinea W
4.00

finishing

Chinese Taipei W+0.00on par
Papua New Guinea W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chinese Taipei W ↓

Papua New Guinea W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Chinese Taipei W or draw
92%
Chinese Taipei W or Papua New Guinea W
89%
Draw or Papua New Guinea W
19%

Winning margin

Chinese Taipei W wins by 2+
63%
Papua New Guinea W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chinese Taipei W 1+ goals
97%
Chinese Taipei W 2+ goals
85%
Chinese Taipei W 3+ goals
66%
Papua New Guinea W 1+ goals
66%
Papua New Guinea W 2+ goals
29%
Papua New Guinea W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chinese Taipei W (draw refunded)
91%
Papua New Guinea W (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chinese Taipei W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Papua New Guinea W away — creates 1.83, concedes 4.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chinese Taipei W attack 3.00 + Papua New Guinea W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Papua New Guinea W attack 1.83 + Chinese Taipei W defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Chinese Taipei W scores more
81%
level
11%
Papua New Guinea W scores more
8%

Chinese Taipei W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Chinese Taipei W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
35'
38'
65'
76'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Chinese Taipei W 5–0 Papua New Guinea W

Chinese Taipei W beat Papua New Guinea W 5-0 in Friendlies Women on February 23, 2023.

Goals: ? (30', 35', 38', 65', 76').

The match was played at North Harbour Stadium in North Shore.