Chinese Taipei 1–2 Turkmenistan: Result & Stats

Chinese Taipei

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Turkmenistan

3/25/2025

Asian Cup - Qualification · 3rd Round - 1Taipei Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Chinese Taipei29%

×Draw23%

Turkmenistan48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chinese TaipeiExpected goals in this matchTurkmenistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.75

Chinese Taipei

1.31

Turkmenistan

1.75

Turkmenistan creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.13

creates per match

1.13

2.38

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Chinese Taipei

1.13

Turkmenistan

1.13

allows per match

Chinese Taipei

2.38

Turkmenistan

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chinese Taipei+0.00on par

Turkmenistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chinese Taipei ↓

Turkmenistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chinese Taipei or draw

52%

Chinese Taipei or Turkmenistan

77%

Draw or Turkmenistan

71%

Winning margin

Chinese Taipei wins by 2+

12%

Turkmenistan wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Chinese Taipei 1+ goals

73%

Chinese Taipei 2+ goals

38%

Chinese Taipei 3+ goals

14%

Turkmenistan 1+ goals

83%

Turkmenistan 2+ goals

52%

Turkmenistan 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Chinese Taipei (draw refunded)

38%

Turkmenistan (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chinese Taipei at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

Turkmenistan away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chinese Taipei attack 1.13 + Turkmenistan defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Turkmenistan attack 1.13 + Chinese Taipei defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chinese Taipei scores more

29%

level

23%

Turkmenistan scores more

48%

Turkmenistan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Turkmenistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff