Chindia Targoviste 3–1 Viitorul Şelimbăr

Chindia Targoviste

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Viitorul Şelimbăr

8/16/2025

Liga II · Round 3Stadionul Eugen Popescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chindia Targoviste49%

×Draw26%

Viitorul Şelimbăr25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chindia TargovisteExpected goals in this matchViitorul Şelimbăr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.02

Chindia Targoviste

1.53

Viitorul Şelimbăr

1.02

Chindia Targoviste creates 50% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 69 away

1.83

creates per match

0.96

1.08

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste

1.83

Viitorul Şelimbăr

0.96

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste

1.08

Viitorul Şelimbăr

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Viitorul Şelimbăr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

Viitorul Şelimbăr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw

75%

Chindia Targoviste or Viitorul Şelimbăr

74%

Draw or Viitorul Şelimbăr

51%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+

25%

Viitorul Şelimbăr wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals

78%

Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals

45%

Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals

20%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 1+ goals

64%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 2+ goals

27%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)

66%

Viitorul Şelimbăr (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Viitorul Şelimbăr away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.83 + Viitorul Şelimbăr defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.53

Viitorul Şelimbăr attack 0.96 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more

49%

level

26%

Viitorul Şelimbăr scores more

25%

Chindia Targoviste at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff