Chindia Targoviste 0–0 U Craiova 1948

Chindia Targoviste

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

U Craiova 1948

3/12/2022

Liga I · Relegation Round - 1Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Chindia Targoviste37%

×Draw28%

U Craiova 194835%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chindia TargovisteExpected goals in this matchU Craiova 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.14

Chindia Targoviste

1.18

U Craiova 1948

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 59 away

1.05

creates per match

1.02

1.25

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste

1.05

U Craiova 1948

1.02

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste

1.25

U Craiova 1948

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

U Craiova 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw

65%

Chindia Targoviste or U Craiova 1948

72%

Draw or U Craiova 1948

63%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+

16%

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals

69%

Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals

33%

Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals

12%

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals

68%

U Craiova 1948 2+ goals

32%

U Craiova 1948 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)

51%

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.05 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.02 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more

37%

level

28%

U Craiova 1948 scores more

35%

Chindia Targoviste at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Chindia Targoviste 0–0 U Craiova 1948

Chindia Targoviste and U Craiova 1948 drew 0-0 in Liga I on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oană in Ploieşti.

Chindia Targoviste vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga I 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Liga I: Chindia Targoviste 0–0 U Craiova 1948