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Chindia Targoviste vs SCM Gloria Buzău — Liga II 2018

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
8/22/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 3Stadionul Eugen Popescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Chindia Targoviste47%
×Draw25%
SCM Gloria Buzău29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
1.59
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.19

Chindia Targoviste creates 34% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 66 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.93
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.35

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.02
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.26

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

SCM Gloria Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
71%
Chindia Targoviste or SCM Gloria Buzău
75%
Draw or SCM Gloria Buzău
53%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
24%
SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
80%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
47%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
21%
SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
70%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
33%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
62%
SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

SCM Gloria Buzău away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.93 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.59

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 1.35 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
47%
level
25%
SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
29%

Chindia Targoviste at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chindia Targoviste vs SCM Gloria Buzău

Chindia Targoviste and SCM Gloria Buzău drew 1-1 in Liga II on August 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Eugen Popescu in Târgovişte.