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Chindia Targoviste vs GAZ Metan Medias — Liga I 2018

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
GAZ Metan Medias
GAZ Metan Medias
11/5/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 15Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Chindia Targoviste42%
×Draw27%
GAZ Metan Medias30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
1.32
GAZ Metan Medias
1.07

Chindia Targoviste creates 23% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 76 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.05
GAZ Metan Medias
0.89

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.25
GAZ Metan Medias
1.59

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

GAZ Metan Medias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
70%
Chindia Targoviste or GAZ Metan Medias
73%
Draw or GAZ Metan Medias
58%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
19%
GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
73%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
38%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
15%
GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals
66%
GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals
29%
GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
58%
GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

GAZ Metan Medias away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.05 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.32

GAZ Metan Medias attack 0.89 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
42%
level
27%
GAZ Metan Medias scores more
30%

Chindia Targoviste at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chindia Targoviste vs GAZ Metan Medias

GAZ Metan Medias beat Chindia Targoviste 1-0 in Liga I on November 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oană in Ploieşti.