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Chindia Targoviste vs FCSB — Liga I 2026

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FCSB
FCSB
10/20/2019Liga ILiga I · Round 13Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Chindia Targoviste29%
×Draw27%
FCSB44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
1.06
FCSB
1.38

FCSB creates 30% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 155 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.05
FCSB
1.51

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.25
FCSB
1.07

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
56%
Chindia Targoviste or FCSB
73%
Draw or FCSB
71%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
11%
FCSB wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
65%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
29%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
9%
FCSB 1+ goals
75%
FCSB 2+ goals
40%
FCSB 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
40%
FCSB (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.05 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

FCSB attack 1.51 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
29%
level
27%
FCSB scores more
44%

FCSB at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Chindia Targoviste 1–2 FCSB

FCSB beat Chindia Targoviste 2-1 in Liga I on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oană in Ploieşti.